From the beginning of ‘America First’ to the grisly end of riots, insurrection and impeachment, the Trump presidency has pulled the USA increasingly away from its previous positions of influence throughout the world. Indeed the Trump Administration looks to be actively engaged in sparking foreign policy problems in order to cause maximum disruption for the incoming Biden team, rather than with any view on what is good for the country. Throughout the Trump Administration this lack of consistency and erratic foreign policy measures have brought about a reduction of trust in the USA, even amongst former close allies.
Can the USA regain lost ground in places such as the Middle East, Africa, and even amongst its NATO allies in Europe?
Under the twin weights of COVID-19 and the internal struggle to preserve democratic norms, the USA has increasingly turned its gaze inwards. ‘America first’ has led to a vacuum in the aid, diplomatic, and military spheres which have been quickly and efficiently filled by other states. These states have enthusiastically moved into areas in which the United States has historically either been a key player or in which it has previously sought to increase its influence. China and Russia, in particular, have gleefully stepped into these spaces and have doubled down during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The example of Chinese engagement in Africa is instructional. Whilst the US has been primarily interested in Africa in the military fight against terrorism (even though under Trump it is withdrawing its troops from Somalia), China has developed ‘vaccine diplomacy’ as part of its overall strategy in Africa. Several African states have been assured that they are a ‘priority’ for the Chinese government in terms of vaccine supply. China is already in a historically strong position throughout Africa following investment in large scale infrastructure programs across the continent. The easy availability of Chinese credit and the downplaying of human rights as ‘internal issues’ make China the partner of choice for many African governments and Africa is an intrinsic part of the ‘Belt and Road’ project. The scope of the influence China holds on the continent cannot be underrated.
Russian involvement in Africa, often in a pseudo military role with ‘advisors’ and private Russian security companies, ensures a military footprint in many states. Whether in the Central African Republic or Libya, Russia is actively seeking to build upon its increased status in the Middle East. This was aided by the US withdrawal from the fight against ISIS/Daesh in Syria. In a mirror of the Chinese approach in Africa, Russian vaccines against COVID-19 have been part of an increased diplomatic push. Several key strategic allies of the USA (such as the UAE) are being supplied with Russian vaccines, and have taken part in vaccine trials in return for supplies. Several states are still taking US supplied vaccines but also routinely engage with Russia in a two way approach.
Closer to the EU, Turkey is a key ally of the USA and a NATO member. However it has recently taken delivery of Russian made defence missiles, and is a high profile recipient of Chinese vaccines despite documented human rights abuses against predominantly Muslim Uighur populations in Western China.
The EU itself has come under critical attack by the Trump Administration on trade and other issues, whilst NATO allies have been forced to consider military defence without the guarantee of US support.
These are only some of the more obvious areas in which the USA is losing its influence and goodwill, and which are likely to affect how the Biden Administration can act on the world stage. The popular description of the USA as an ‘informal empire’ and the routine acknowledgement as the major superpower of the 20th and 21st century are in doubt as a result. The policies, disruptions, and inconsistencies of the Trump Administration have clearly reduced the reach and credibility of the USA. The question now is, can it regain its position as ‘leader of the free world’ or have states such as China and Russia become a true counterweight to US influence among its previously strong allies? Has the creation and subsequent filling of the vacuum left by the USA changed the dynamic of American influence in world affairs for the foreseeable future?
